Gene,
"You continue to assert that Intel's business is transforming into a commodity business. I
continue to believe that Intel's focus/shift to high end computing is a shift away from the
commodity end (although they will continue to get more than their fair share of this
segment) towards the high end which is much more proprietary and profitable."
I continue to assert that Intel's PC segment is transforming into a commodity business. And the Flash, graphics and future StrongArm businesses are also commodities.
And the shift from PC's to server's, etc., for the high end is a major change in the business model. For example, $4 Billion in Xeon's represents a huge server business.
Maybe 2 million servers for Intel based systems alone? (I'm just guessing an average of two devices per system at a 1999 ASP of $1000). You know a lot more about this market than me. How many servers do you think will be sold in 1999? Total and Intel's share? Anyone else on the thread?
"I disagree with the notion that AMD can continue to rack up huge losses indefinitely to
gain market share. Bills have to be paid and their credit rating continues to decline. I
know, I know, the BIG turn around is just around the corner.....like it has been for the
last several quarters <ggg>. I honestly believe that even if AMD posts big losses in the
next 4 quarters many supporters/believers will still be saying wait until "next" quarter."
Again, I think volume is the key here. While there is no guarantee, we've already seen vast improvements in manufacturing . And based on their small die size, I think 5+M units/qtr is a piece of cake. Can they sell that many? Remains to be seen, but I think you're discounting the impact of volume on profits. They'll ship fewer than that this quarter as they ramp up, and I think the earnings report will be a good indicator of the future. Again, I think there will be an upside surprise.
"<BTW, I think the 90 Million PC number is low for 1999.>"
A rare point of agreement <gg>."
It will be interesting to see how this breaks down into segments.
I'm guessing 1999 at $25B revenues and $3.40/share. You obviously don't agree. What's your guess?
Always a pleasure bickering with you, Fred. I like meat with my potato's. (Geez, I hope I spelled that right!) ;-) |
