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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Sam who wrote (6746)	9/26/1998 11:31:00 AM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) of 9980

Sam, <<But, if this is true, does the Fed actually want to add to the credit crunch in much of the world? Or try to make it easier for loans to be serviced, and buy some time for these problems to be worked out?>> Actually you suggest to me another question by posing the questions above. I would be interested to have a straw poll here as to what each of us think is the probability of a soft landing and recovery versus a hard landing. I do not refer to the U.S. stock market but more to the global deflationary spiral. I can assume certain positions of course. Kam is locked and loaded to make money no matter what happens <G> and will be here to say I told you so. Zeev is likely to preface remarks about a recovery with "If Japan" etc etc. Tippet, Bernie, and Clark are all headed for the hills after buying up all the ammo and freeze dried tuna casserole, and I think you and I are still here but watching their disappearing trail dust wistfully. I am really curious to know the general outlook of our individual tribal posters here. Joking aside I think I am leaning to a mild recession scenario in the states which will export to Europe. From flat line to 1-2% negative I would guess, the serious numbers starting in the latter half of 99. Our early signs will be in the employment figures I suspect. Asia is in for a long recovery I am afraid. I just do not see adequate leadership or fundamentals in any of the countrys there to avoid a further melting down. I believe it will cost the world a step or two backwards in the great move towards democratization and it will prolong a global market reengineering based on high level diplomacy. Bretton Woods will be cast aside and a new buzz word will enter the lingo eventually. South and Central America will also suffer a mild recession in my opinion but the intelligence of NAFTA will become abundantly clearer eventually. All of the above IMHO and highly suspect for inadequate knowledge and thinking. Best, Stitch

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