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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: robert b furman who wrote (29012)9/26/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: bobby beara  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
you are fighting the long term trend.Any TA reason this double top wouldn't pop thru to new highs vs fail at 630?

Bob, I understand this, but my mission as a Kahunatic is to try to find turning points in markets. Monty sent me a chart showing the index going on a MACD buy signal.

HOWEVER, I must caution people that at some point (the final peak) computer generated programs fail. Long Term Capital had super computer models and nobel laureates in finance on their staff. I would say that most tech fund managers are relying on the same kind of computer models.

This is the ultimate NEW ERA thinking. The computers and internets begin bid up while the real foundations of our economy - the banks, the cokes, the gillettes, procter and gambles, the airlines are all going in the tank. In the rebound off the June 15th low, this wasn't the case. The bear is taking out sectors one at a time and the new era sector is the last to go.

I think what we will have in the XCI is a bull trap - a failed buy signal. It's just like a failed Head and Shoulders pattern, like we had last January 12th. When these patterns fail they go the other way in the same measured move.

If you see a big REVERSAL from 630 next week, I believe it will be the shorting opportunity of the century.

bwdik,
bb

Intersting article reporting good sales in the most devastated third world economies in computers from dell

Michael Dell is a great salesman - but remember salesmen always try to sell the most profitable item in stock - AND THAT IS HIS STOCK!
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