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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6747)9/26/1998 1:28:00 PM
From: Stitch  Read Replies (2) of 9980
 
Zeev,

<<The Feds may also be faced with the initial trend of a weakening dollar (due, possibly to our trade deficit growing much too fast) and lowering domestic interest rates would exacerbate this situation as well, so they may wait to the "breaking" point on that, allowing some reignition of the economic engines in Asia before they let our dollar weaken too much.>>

I think you are right about this and it occurred to me that lowering the interest rates will be as much a market timing problem as any long or short bet. That is one of my concerns. So many things are going wrong "out there" it makes the timing issue especially difficult. In any case, I note you are mildly bearish. Is that a fair understanding and does that mean you think we will have a mild recession here?

best,
Stitch
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