INDEX UPDATE
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I am trying to make sense of this market and the near-term direction. As of right now, I see no technical proof that the support line at 7500-7400 will break, nor do I have any technical proof that we will return to an uptrend that will take us to retest the all-time highs anytime soon. So I will list as many of the technical PROs and CONs for the market:
MARKET PROS:
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1) XCI(COMPUTERs) is only a 3 points from setting a new closing high
2) DRG was only 2.8% off its all-time high on WED, now heading down
3) DOW,SPX,NAZ are now setting HIGHER HIGHS and HIGHER LOWS
4) Short-term trend (1-5 days) is up, but nearing its maximum.
MARKET NEGATIVES:
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1) TRAN appears to be setting a LOWER HIGH at 2905 range
2) JAPAN MARKET(N225) just set a NEW MULTI-YEAR LOW
NEUTRAL SIGNALs:
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1) Few short/mid-term indicators are in oversold region, while more are in the mid-range or overbought region(mcclellan osc, stochastic, dmi, rsi, williams, macd)
2) Market internals have improved but not significant to say we are heading back into an uptrend
3) The major indexes(DOW,SPX,NAZ) have yet to break the highs of AUG, after the 1st leg down.
4) As of Fridays close the DOW has rebounded 32% of the overall pullback (9367-7401). To put it in perspective, after the OCT 97 correction the DOW rebounded 72% in 6 days.
On purely a technical basis there is no strong indication that the market will set major higher highs, or major lower lows. For the DOW the major high is around 8700 which was the AUG peaks.
I feel that a significant break of the 8350 resistance line, would be the first strong signal that the bottom at 7400 bottom has been established, but still needs confirmation. Such would also imply that there may not be a retest of 7400.
On a technical basis, I am neither bullish or bearish - Just feel that we will be in a trading range for the short-mid term. On a subjective basis, I am still bearish, but not strongly bearish.
Just trying to make sense of the market, in light of strong BEARISH and BULLISH sentiments.
seeya |
