SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 35.10+2.3%Nov 19 3:59 PM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: gnuman who wrote (65478)9/26/1998 4:11:00 PM
From: Fred Fahmy  Read Replies (2) of 186894
 
Gene,

<How many servers do you think will be sold in 1999? Total and Intel's share? Anyone else on the thread?>

I wouldn't pretend to have a good estimate but I think the key trends (i.e. increasing demand for servers and Intel's rapidly increasing share of these) are in the right direction. Since I am here for the long term, this is what I find most relevant.

<but I think you're discounting the impact of volume on profits>

No, not at all. I just have serious doubts as to whether or not they will be able to sell these volumes. They obviously can't increase throughput to reduce cost if they don't have sufficient demand. IMO, earlier yield problems (although real) were a very convenient smoke screen. In other words, I am not convinced that sales would have been much better had they had 100% yield. My guess is that they (and their channels) would simply have had more inventory.

<I think there will be an upside surprise.>

Given that the estimates call for them to once again lose a boat load of money your guess is entirely possible. Perhaps they will only lose a few truck loads worth <gg>.

<I'm guessing 1999 at $25B revenues and $3.40/share.>

Assuming Asia remains soft, I estimate $3.75.

<Always a pleasure bickering with you...>

Likewise, I think a rational contrarian view is very useful and thought provoking. Except for your belief that Intel is going to miss Q3, I think your arguments fit the definition of "rational contrarian views".

FF

Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News