I do not belive anyone will argue that currently, there are over 1000 Heidelberg GTO DIs and Quickmaster DI's installed. Using the averages indicated in the "Graphic Arts Monthly" article, if a DI press uses 40 plates a day or 200 a week - it cannot equal 100,000 plates a year, as the article states. 200 x 52 = 10,400 plates not 100,000. (I wish!)
So if we use this 10,400 plates per press x 1000 DI presses, that would equal 10,400,000 plates sold. At $9.00 per plate, gross sales will equal $93,600,000 in plate material.
As it is estimated that Presstek currently receives a profit, after third party expense, of approximently $3.12 per plate, then revenue to Presstek should exceed $32,448,000 in DI plate sales only. This represents $1.00 per share revenue, before other company expense and tax. Now, we know that PEARLgold is close to commercial production. Obviously plate material will be at a much lower cost for this product, however, it is mostly manufactured "in-house," not shipped out, as is ocuring with the DI plate material, which is used on current Heidelberg DI presses. High margins in Pearl Gold are expected. Next will be DI plate material manufactured in-house. And much higher plate profit to Presstek. With the development of the 74-Karat and the Speedmaster 74-DI using Pearlgold this will also add substantially to plate income in 1999 and 2000. Then comes the brand new press from Presstek/Heidelberg and who knows how many other companies will have announced alignment with Presstek?
There are many, many, thousands of offset presses worldwide. These printers will soon be demanding Presstek's Pearlgold processless plates in the near future. Think about it.....Why would they use a thermal plate from any other company offering that must either be pre or post baked? They WILL go with the processless plate.....and Presstek knows this.....as well as the rest of the industry.
Many industry venders are furiously manufacturing thermal platesetters at ever increasing numbers. These imagers have the ability to image thermal plates. I have a list from calling 14 manufacturers that claim they have tested, and can now image the Presstek thermal processless plate. They have confirmed that the traditional platesetters that were being manufactured to image film, are now nearly a thing of the past. Printers want a unit that can image thermal or both thermal and film, as they know a thermal processless plate is right around the corner. I am amazed that all of you don't have a clue what that means to future Presstek profits. It is exactly what the company has planned for. It is no secret they intend to dominate the printing plate market.....and are directly on track to do so. Presstek built the Delta V line, with it's vast capacity to manufacture processless plates, at numbers of plate footage, way beyond anyones imagination based on current need. They have planned well, as their is no other current supplier with the ability to provide any thermal plate material in quantity and at the pricing level. Presstek will compete well, even if another processless plate is made.
I believe it has been the competitions inablity so far to-date, to copy or manufacture a clone of Presstek's processless "holy grail," that may have been partially responsible for the lack of past progress in the industry fully accepting CTP and thermal plate usage. The move to acceptance by the industry, although grudgently, is now being realized in a all consuming way. Printers must change to digital very soon, or just simply go out of business.
I believe that FUJI has recognized this parigon shift in the industry, accepting it as the only true alternative printers can take. I think they have now closely aligned themselves with Presstek and have recognized their joint leadership position. Rumor is a special low cost FUJI DI press for DRUPA, using the Heath patent and Presstek technology. (Reported FUJI engineering fees being paid to Presstek, are obviously being paid for technology.)
I look for many plate manufactures to come to Presstek in the future for processless plate material or licensing agreements to copy their technology. I also see many Press manufacturers approaching Presstek for licensing and development of on-press imaging technology.
Horsell was recently purchased by Kodak. Horsell had recently developed there own style of thermal plate, which was claimed to also be processless. It is not of the same making as PEARLgold and is not expected to be as effective or image as well. If an announcement regarding a new thermal plate is made by Kodak at IPEX this week, Presstek doesn't have a thing to worry about according to those in the industry I have spoken to. They have already conceeded the processless plate battle to Presstek.
It is believed that Kodak was unable to come up with their own product and must have become quite concerned. Seems there must be much more behind the exit of Robert Hallman, Kodak's key plate engineer and their second in command.
For him to "defect" from Kodak and join "tiny Presstek" as their CEO, I can only imagine the scope or the tremendous potential Hallman must envision for the Presstek company. It is a certainty that Hallman and the Engineers and Scientists at Kodak are fully aware of Presstek's new product line, and have studied the processless material and certainly combed Presstek's vast stable of patents protecting their technology. I believe Kodak found no loopholes and even with Polychrome, are unable to find the answer. With Hallman's background as a scientist and engineer in plates, and his personal list of prior patents in this technology....does it not seem clear he would seek the company with the highest potential to continue to use his knowledge and expertise? Is it a fluke he chose Presstek? I DON'T THINK SO!
Is the vast potential for Presstek having the ability to soon generate huge earning growth, much more so today than ever before? Some of you will say no and if you're short, this stock will sting you hard! How many shareholders are left that will sell their shares so you can cover at these prices? I believe your greed will amount to a steady gain for those that own this stock as this stock will move as recognition for their technology is realized. The potential for Presstek is most real. This is not a "sleeping dog" you can let lay. It is most alive and awake and it will bite back!
Neil |
