dj800: About your CIEN. As I say, I like your choice of VTS as a value stock, so I'll just assume that CIEN is equally as good, and that I am missing some knowledge about CIEN or not seeing what you are seeing with it. For me, I see no compelling reason to buy. Sure price has dropped a huge bunch. Yes fiber optics is important and growing -- yes, that's a given. But have you checked out CIEN competition? I thought Corning (GLW) was the dominant player. They're certainly bigger.
Plenty of other companies seem to offer more than CIEN on a price/sales, price/book, price/cashflow, earnings growth rate. So I assume you've found some of them as well, yet still believe CIEN offers the better buy. And I assume that this would be a long term hold for you - or at least until CIEN reaches 20? Perhaps I need to think some more about "potential". You've said CIEN has growth "potential" and upside "potential". Looks like I am focusing more on the risk. I think in this kind of market, to buy a stock, either the buyer should know it and be comfortable with it (esp. if it is declining) (and by that I mean not rely on what some writer or CEO says)-- or else, the stock should have some feature on which one can hang one's hat, esp. if the stock tanks even more. Like it has a very good dividend, or its pe is at 15 year low, or cyclical stock is at its low, or p/cf is very low, or great and continuing sales growth (maybe that is CIEN?) Just my opinion. Not saying that CIEN won't go back up to 20, 40, 80--- just that I can't see the favorable risk/reward. Paul |
