PM Discussion: Ken / John on international aspects of Y2k
'To: Ken Salaets (who wrote...)
From: John Mansfield
Saturday, Sep 26 1998 5:10PM ET
Ken,
What do you think of the following argumentation:
- IT personnel are key to solving the Y2k problem; they are increasingly short in
demand;
- Lowering visa requirements, increasing wages etc. well attracts foreign IT personnel
to other countries that have a more attractive bid;
- This might even pose a barrier to cooperation between nations on Y2k; as the
interest of one nation (e.g. the US) is not served by informing other nations (e.g. Latin
American) on Y2k issues.
This might (partly) explain the lack of public political pressure by US/UK/Canada on
lagging nations, e.g. France and Germany.
John
________________
________
'John, the U.S. economy is so intertwined with our trading partners, I cannot imagine
that the U.S. would withhold information from other countries. Indeed, the Feds are
aggressively reaching out to other governments, particularly in the third world. A
number of my member companies are assisting in the effort.
Having said that, there's also little doubt that the market forces will have some influence
over where key personnel practice their trades.
We're all in this together, and while the problem will no doubt have a greater impact in
some countries, all will be affected. IMHO.
Ken
_____________-
John:
<<
John, the U.S. economy is so intertwined with our trading partners, I cannot imagine
that the U.S. would withhold information from other countries. Indeed, the Feds are
aggressively reaching out to other governments, particularly in the third world. A
number of my member companies are assisting in the effort.
Having said that, there's also little doubt that the market forces will have some influence
over where key personnel practice their trades.
We're all in this together, and while the problem will no doubt have a greater impact in
some countries, all will be affected. IMHO.
>>
I agree with you that we are all in this together. Still; market forces are simply draining
South American programmers towards the US; combined with the eased visa laws this
does not bode well at all for those SA countries. Some months ago I read an article
about US head hunters literally scavenging those countries, offering 2 - 5 times their
current SA wages.
Also, I remember some UK official stating that they wanted the UK to becomde the
European 'safe Y2k haven'.
I simply do NOT see that much pressure by e.g. UK on other European countries to
fight Y2k. You have to keep in mind that in recent years many UK programmers went
to the continent, where they could earn much more.
When a worst case scenario pans out, many countries will revert for quite some time to
a semi 'self sufficient' status (especially if international travel would break down for a
longer period; not unthinkable to me).
We might then well see a trend to 'each country fighting for itself'.
Also, I have seen no thoughts at all on what will happen when some countries are much
more advanced than others (extreme example: UK and Netherlands much advanced;
electricity/water still working more or less; and a total breakdown in e.g. Italy.
In Europe people are now free to move and live in other countries (Schengen treaty);
this scenario would result in tremendous (nationalistic) potential pressures.
Same argument may be valid for different states in the US.
Any thoughts?
Regards,
John
______________
Ken:
'South America will go the way as most other regions, i.e., their IT industry will be
heavily controlled if not owned by U.S. multi-nationals. It is already happening to a
much greater extent that is being reported in the media. If anything, Y2K will expedite
the process.
>> In Europe people are now free to move and live in other countries (Schengen
treaty); this scenario would result in tremendous (nationalistic) potential pressures.
Probably true, but in my view, if Y2K wasn't the catalyst, the Europeans would find
some other reason. While a great idea on paper, I still think that Europe will never
realize the unity that the Commission politicos seek. The "project" will collapse due to
internecine warfare among the national and regional nomenklatura.
I anticipate Britain regaining a significant degree of its economic status (within Europe)
as a result of the fall-out from Y2K. However, it will be short-lived. Germany is
essentially playing a role similar to the Free Democrats within their own system. In
other words, they are a natural, historical and economic bridge between the West and
the East, and are quite content playing each side (at the risk of over-simplicity,
America and Russia) off of the other. Even if Kohl manages to pull another electoral
rabbit out of his hat, Germany has already started to move East politically, and in some
respects, culturally. If Kohl loses -- and it looks like he will -- then that movement will
become more visible and methodical.
All my views, mind you, but I like to think that I am a fairly rational student of EU
affairs. And keep in mind that I was the first one to begin dismantling the Wall -- May
1989. I broke off a chunk and announced to my colleagues that my action was the
beginning of the end of that bloody ediface. Now how's that for an over-blown view of
one's self? LOL! [And I was there when it DID open, although unfortunately I was in
Bonn rather than Berlin. Na ja.].
Hey, maybe we should take this to the board? ggg.
Ken
|
