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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: DJBEINO who wrote (23889)9/27/1998 9:57:00 AM
From: Frederick Smart  Read Replies (2) of 42771
 
Novell: Truth In A Land Of Oz....

To understand Novell, try to fathom the idea of being non-proprietary while reading the following.

Novell is turning itself into the worlds first open consortium NOS platter for world enterprises that see the value of drilling the internet into their enterprises NOW and want and need the following on a cross platform basis: 1) centralized administration and control; 2) connectivity; 3) new, emerging java applications; 4) security and authentication; 5) remote access; 6) high throughput - ie. bandwidth.

I have a theory and mission which I apply in business: TO REACH THE SKY YOU MUST STAY HIGH....

In this new paradigm we are moving into, "staying high" requires one to rewire our collective economic, political and corporate brains which have been trained to think selfishly, proprietarily and closed.

Companies leading the next round of global growth and innovation will be characterized by OPENNESS AND TRUST. In the old paradigm, it was customer's openness and trust that was used against them. By the same token, in the old paradigm, companies also abused the trust and openness of their salesforce. The trust and goodwill generated by salespeople, more often that not, was appropriated into the enterprise - as if this could be stolen, repackaged and resold (check out the predatory actions of the brokerage industry when brokers leave to switch firms).

Successful companies in the future cannot afford to think proprietarily anymore. Why? Because in the age of the internet, companies won't be able to hide their true intentions and spin a front like you used to. You have to be more open and honest in the age of the internet. If I tried to use the Internet for selfish gains, the one obvious space to fill out there is porn. To do anything of any value anywhere else requires giving out energy and value in a loop that returns more than what you gave. We all go in the internet because we know by giving we will get so much more in return. The pie grows every day. More light shines everyday. If I was totally selfish the end game for me on the internet would be sending email to myself because the world would tag me as a taker and ignore my contributions.

Enterprises that will really grow from here on out have already made the decision NOW to open up their entire enterprise to their clients: their customers have been let in the back, front, side doors - even the windows and attics out there. This open TRUST creates a windfall of new business. Dell practiced this in a dumb browser kind of why - similar to the E-Trades and Schwab's of the financial world - and look what happened. But that was just Chapter #1: the degree of openness will now be measured and must expand. At some point the followers in the world will realize "opening up" is the way to go. If their ego gets in the way and they try to assume nothing has changed, they will be sitting ducks against competitors that "open up'. The term "competitor" will have to change. As I describe below: either you are on the inside with clients or you are on the outside - partner or non-partner in the growth of companies. It's all about helping people and companies grow. NOT ABOUT SELLING THEM SOMETHING THEY MAY NOT NEED. To be in partnership requires a foundation of trust that is almost sacred and implicit. Companies that rely on legal straightjackets, NDAs, safeguards and protections will be out in the cold talking to themselves for nobody will talk to them. Why? Because they DO NOT TRUST ANYONE!

Getting back to the transition underway. Chapter #1, the dumb browser-based open "front door" model will move into Chapter #2 which will integrate in internet into the corporate enterprise by going several steps deeper. Those who wait for Active Directory will completely and totally miss out on this NEXT REVOLUTIONARY PHASE. The momentum during phase 2 will dwarf phase 1. Gates has snowed the world into believing everyone MUST WAIT WHILE HE GETS READY. That's total and complete BS. This next phase represents the REAL threat to Microsoft. Just as an example, for growth to continue within the E-Trade's, Schwab's and Dells of the world they are now obligated to turn more and more control over to their customers. Didn't we all learn that "you can't have your cake and eat it, too." If these guys think the game is over, they will be sadly mistaken. The game has only just begun.

By my reckoning, the first internet stage has passed us - say 1-2 years ago. Webpages, browsers, Yahoos, cute banners, too much information, clutter and confusion. I refer to this as "spaggetti innovation". When the original wall was blank, everyone became overnight Picassos and within a year, the Jeff Bezos's of the world all landed on the cover of Forbes thinking that THEY somehow were the brilliant leaders of this new paradigm. But I ask everyone: did these guys undergo a revolutionary shift in their thinking to support this success? Their success was based on not their ideas, but the default fact that had the dumb luck to be on surfboards when the initial Internet tsunami hit. These guys may know how to surf, but wave #1 has already passed and the world doesn't even know it.

The Jeff Bezos's of the world may be worth hundreds of millions of dollars richer, but they are all simply Wizards in a Land of Oz. And, like Dorothy and her friends, Wall Street has taken the bait and has been out trying to find "the broom of reason" to justify their lunatic valuations.

Bottom line, analysts are totally missing the point behind this new revolution. They are valuing the Yahoos of the world in the the same way they value other companies: which assumes there is some proprietary value that can they can command and control their way into extending the "taking energy model". The old "taking energy model" of business valuation, assumed wrongly that customers of these phase #1 internet companies HAVE PARKED THEIR TRUST FOREVER on new platforms. Metaphorically speaking like Dorothy herself, since Wall Street can't see profits NOW they must close their eyes and try to imagine when "some day over the rainbow" does come - in 1-2 years? - they can assume the next Microsoft "taking model" will be validated and they be "back home" with Antie Em. .

Well, Disney, Time Warner and the rest of Hollywood has bought into the end of wave #1 - after the passing of the wave - hook line and sinker: witness the land rush to buy internet portal cos.. Problem is, we don't live in the Land Of Oz. While they go on thinking, believing they can buy these companies on the assumption - like TV and movies - customers will HAVE TO COME, fact is.... the world has changed underneath every company. From here on out, its all about giving, opening up, throwing away ego, laying your swords down, turning the table ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE POINT WHERE YOUR ENTIRE VIEW OF THE WORLD MUST CHANGE IF YOU WANT TO SURVIVE.

People can call me crazy, for I do know and respect that there is a universal BIG market for slams, scams and lies. Being "taken" - ie sold a bill of goods - is truly the American way - but these days are about over. The old view which defined everything as a fixed zero sum game saw scarcity in amidst abundance, limitation in a universe without limits. It validated our collective world view and confirmed victimhood upon the masses. If "I" didn't make it, then since the world is a rotten place, the guys who did make it had to have made it selfishly, etc. Clinton, the dirty hero of "ya'll" sings to this world choir of labeled victims as he grins and spins into the last gasp closing chapter of a history that should move behind us if and when we get our heads connected the right way. It's not about "us vs. them", Republicans vs. the Democrats, conservative vs. liberals, etc. If the internet has done one thing, its to prove to the world we are indeed "one" mind and spirit. There is but one truth. Nobody has a lock on truth, but we all know in essence it is "higher" than us all. If we could simply stop killing, labeling, defaming each other and look "higher" then I think all this static and confusion would die down.

I will just say this. The internet will show the way "higher" from here on out. Just watch where the growth comes from. Examine the companies behind this growth. The companies that will grow in ways that far exceed expectations will be those that open up to the world, totally and completely, shedding ego, command and control as we know it now. Selling and marketing will become "partnering". If you approach a client with the intent to help them grow their business without the attending quid pro quo, if you have done your job right - achieving that sacred and delicate zone of trust on both sides - you become a defacto partner in their future success. If your aim is to simply sell the "one-off deals" then you won't be welcomed as a partner into this world. Companies that do not practice this new "partnering approach" will be left out in the cold with nobody but themselves to talk to and blame.

I sense very deeply that Novell knows the real story is only just beginning. Novell fits squarely into this model and for that reason alone is a sleeping giant. Novell is sending signals to the entire world corporate enterprise market that they want to be a trusted, global, energy giving, innovative, open, internet-fueled business partner that can help businesses embrace this NEXT WAVE, which will be far bigger and will catch THE ENTIRE OLD WORLD SLEEPING. Executives at these companies will be embarrassed to say they slept in Bill Gate's Lincoln bedroom for the past 2+ years.

But for Novell to capitalize on this new paradigm it MUST remain totally and completely open. "Staying High" means being at least one micron higher than the highest pyramid out there: ie Microsoft, companies and technologies that "take energy". . NDS technology is about as "high" as anything I have seen in a long time. It will become a friend and resource to the entire world on a cross platform basis. It will enable the entire world to populate the White Pages, Yellow Pages, Green Pages, Red Pages of not only the internet at the website level, but the entire guts of what's within the enterprise.

Whatever the cost, Novell MUST NOT GO PROPRIETARY on NDS. Eventually they should actually give it away for free - source code and all. This would truly solidify their future. The java-based applications and others products and services that would spin off from this would be amazing.

Seeing where the growth comes from going forward, over time, like street smart kids, customers will grow to develop and appreciate a new nose for companies that practice the art of partnering by truly practicing this new mindset of openness, trust, sharing, giving, etc.

For whether we understand it or not, it's still the internet stupid. Prior to the internet, survival was all about taking energy from others, stepping over customers and competitors - with knives, clubs and chains - to advance in a zero sum game world that was defined by the mantra "kill or be killed". Steve and Bill, hate to spoil your party, but its over buddies. You must either go back to therapy or understand that to succeed in the next millenium you have to be OPEN TO TRUST, GIVE, SHARE AND HELP......

Hate to beat on this dead horse again and again, but this means selling and marketing as we know it IS DEAD, PERIOD!!

In the this new wired world of the Global Network, the tables have all been turned and pyramids have been turned upside down. It means going into a client's offices and treating them as your equal - not as some object to be sold, spun, packaged and bagged. That approach has bread distrust and anger and suspicion. That would be like someone coming on these boards with some angle to try to get us all whipped up over something completely fabricated, but it sure sounded great. Bottom-line, after the smoke settled, we would all realize he was trying to "sell us something" and left us with no lasting ideas of value.

The old business model rewarded those who said "YOU CAN"T TRUST ANYONE, PERIOD!" You won if you did whatever you could to hold back and take from others as you strategized a way to co-opt what's good and creative out there for YOUR benefit.

As the days, weeks and months roll by from here on out, the world will gradually understand that sometime during 1997 or 1998 the first chink in the armor of the energy taking command control pyramid model of running a business, government, city or even "a life" has suddenly changed.

We are truly living through a revolution with titanic implications for the old world, the old order. Again, and after all, it's the internet, stupid.....

Gather the children, get on deck and find those lifeboats.
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