These unit sales of iMac reports scare the hell out of me. The largest unit number I've seen expressed was 8000 in Japan after the launch, an insigificant number for the whole country. This last observation of 200 since the launch would result in only what about 106,000, a small number if considered across all of Apple's retailers. The ZD net story which indicated July sales up as a percentage of June as a percentage of April/May also noted what 1200 machines across the Compuware chain, something like that - once again very small. The story that indicated August sales up 125% from July would only result in large sales if July had been a good month. Hence we base everything on the market research that indicates July sales up to some 260,000+ from the average last qtr of 210,000+. I ask a simple question - why would July sales be up when everyone knew both the iMac and the G3 refresh were imminent. Also how could July sales be up if as we're all aware G3 and PB supply was very limited - which was certainly indicated. Wouldn't logic dictate that July sales would if anything be down.
One other data point was a French concern that said they were selling 3 million francs worth of Apple products daily that's about $530,000 USD which would be some 350 units a day at an ASP of $1500 USD which is low. Since Europe didn't have all that much time to sell in the qtr this probably doesn't represent much.
Obviously, iMac sales must have been fairly good thus far but my point is that all of our rosy projections are fundamentally based on two surveys, one that indicated good sales in July, one that expressed August sales in terms of July. All of the data points that express units do not support overly high expectations. Additionally, assuming July sales were great and thus 125% of great is greater, should be viewed with caution as it's hard to imagine the driving force for great sales in July especially considering supply shortages that were evident. Rich |
