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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Berney who wrote (29167)9/27/1998 10:23:00 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Berney thanks for your thought process.To parallel your analysis I see the 27 days (I counted 10/08/98 including labor day holiday)with 9.38 % gain to a target of 515.08 (Reached thursday).Just an observation but all the 97 action was done mostly done over the 50 day moving average.

I viewed the plunge below the 50 moving average ending on 10-28-97 as pretty close to the action on 8/31/98.Here are some numbers:

97 bottom on 10/28/97 = 407.51
oex hit 50 day ma 14 days later at 455 (8.9 % gain)
Top occurred 27 days later at 474.93 (4.4 % gain)

98 bottom on 08/31/98 = 470.91
oex hit 50 day ma ???? been 18 trading days - looks like convergence could occur around 520 given current uptrend (trendline connecting tops) If so that would be a (8.3 % gain)

Projected top would ocur (27 days later) october 8 at a (4.4 % gain) above 50 day ma 520 est.)or 542.88

543 is real close to the top of your oex right shoulder and , oh yes by the way - didn't cut the mustard and would give us an opportunity to read 100 posts /day about the failed right shoulder and the B.K.!

Actually it was a 14 day decline of 6 % and it was off to speculative excuberence from there :-)

Just an observation any thoughts?

P.S. It seems to me the market was more oversold in oct 97 than aug 97 as well as now in 98 - we are coming from a similar very oversold time period.

Thanks for your thoughts but your october 9 really hit home on my short term trading thoughts.
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