mark: re: "Time to dump INTC at $90ish ?"
Paul is not the right person to ask that question. He's the cheerleader-in-charge of this frat party called the Intel thread.
Intel has been a trading stock for 2 solid years now, stuck in a 70-90 trading range. Since early 1997, buying in the 70-75 range, and selling in the 85-90 range, has been more profitable than buy-and-hold. During that time period, buy-and-holders haven't needed to worry about cap gains taxes, because there haven't been any cap gains.
Sooner or later, INTC will again make the X3 move like it made in 1996. I suspect this won't happen till after the next recession, or till Merced is proven to be a big success. I see a lot of market risk, with continuing violent mood swings in the market pulling all stocks up and down. Maybe this move up, from 65 in early June, is the breakout from the trading range. Maybe not.
To go up from here would require breaking a strong resistance line. That would require the market deciding that the flat earnings period is over, and INTC is going to resume it's historical earnings and sales growth. There isn't much evidence of that, yet. It might happen, as Intel moves upmarket into server chips.
I'm going to sell all my INTC (that I bought in early June below 70), at 90. I'm going to hold onto the ZNLAT (2001 leaps, 100 S.P.), that I got at the same time, and already have a double on. Yes, uncle Sam will get 40% of my gains, but at a price of 90, I think the chances of INTC going down are higher than the chances of going up. I would have to pay 20% if I held another 8 months. That 20% difference equals 4 points of my 20 point gain. Not too bad. And there is a good chance of buying back at 70-75 in the next few months. |
