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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board
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To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (5735)9/28/1998 10:49:00 AM
From: JZGalt  Read Replies (1) of 18928
 
Tom,

Sounds like these guys were on the right track. A few points:

1. China. The ultimate long term thinkers. They are receiving enormous capital for remaining a partner in helping to stabilize the Asian region. You are seeing the first beginnings of a true economic superpower. Japan is acting irresponsibily by refusing to deal with their internal problems and allowing it to spread to the region. This will pay off 10-15 years down the road.

2. Mr. Holland gave the three "C's" of investment cycle: I think this depends on what stocks you are invested in. Certainly those of us in the oil service sector, money center banking sector, and small technology stock sector have seen whiff's of capitulation. It is the DELL's, MSFT's and CSCO's that are just entering the "concern" stage. BTW, Is this Michael Holland ala WSW?

3. Things happen very fast. The markets react fast, but the pace at which it ripples through the economy is much slower. For instance, home sales took a dive last month a few months after the market started to fall. It takes time to change the sentiment of the guy on the street.

General: The thinking is changing on wall street. Perhaps it is going through the C's. Currently from what I have read we are looking at a retest of the lows (with perhaps lower lows), but some sectors may have already hit the lows.

I think the next two quarters are correct. Quite a bit should happen and the "shocks" going through the world economic system should abate by then assuming nothing else happens.

Point to consider (I read this, but don't remember where). At the end of 1998, 1 Billion people will be out of work.

----
Dave
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