We haven't posted since Sept.5 when we attempted to interpret the Anvil NR on flow rates from the third frac zone and its implications.HHappy from SH and ourselves[we live in Vancouver ]met in Calgary over the last week to discuss our strategy for investing in Anvil.
Over the last three weeks [while HHappy made a couple of inconsequential postings on SH] we have refrained from posting as we have been buying Anvil to practically double our position and lowering our break-even to approx. .58 per share.The three of us have taken what we believe to be an ethical position[ rightly or wrongly] that we should NOT post while we are buying or selling as we feel our postings might influence other posters on the threads.We are probably overestimating any influence we have but that is the position we take
During this last week we have tried to step away from the daily ups and down of Anvil for a more judicious study of how we should consider our future involvement.We will state our conclusions and try to keep them as brief as possible without boring everyone.
After checking with our non-Anvil sources, and the public statements of Anvil certain facts seem evident to us and we would like to share them with you for enlightenment and, hopefully, comment from others on these threads.
{1} The Lenec's , particularly Jim who calls the shots, are convinced that they have a major gas and oil field discovery in Texas [our other sources confirm this belief] and only time is needed to develop this field and the other properties they have optioned in this area.
{2]Anvil Management has no interest in the day to day gyrations in the price of the stock or, unfortunately, in the protection of the share holders who are in for the fast move.This is reflected in their sparse NR's and in the fact that after repeated requests for them to have SH reinterview Whalen[we have approached SH ourselves requesting such an article] so far nothing has materialized.
{3} Anvil believes that within 2 years or less, the stock will be worth a minimum of $20-30.00 a share based on cash flow and earnings and they will be multi-millionares.
{4} they are concerned that the ASE would jeopardize their success if their reports were seen as an attempt to hype their stock.Thus they will not respond to those shareholders who use the internet to voice their concerns over the movement of the stock.
[5]We and Hhappy on SH believe that the Lenec's appraisal of the Texas find is correct and that is why we have encouraged their attempts at developing this field and tried to to interpret their sparse News Releases to show interested internet readers and shareholders the true value of the find.
However, we now feel that we have been doing the job that Anvil ,itself, should be doing and we have decided that we will relinquish our attempts to correct the deficiences in Anvil's shareholder relations.
Let us state ,categorically, that we at no time or in any way have received any remuneration from Anvil for any of our involvement, nor have we received any information from Anvil sources except for confirmation of information we received from other sources.
We have posted numerous appeals to them to be more forthcoming in their NRs.Perhaps they will in the future as they realize the importance of good shareholder relations, but we feel that we should no longer be doing their work for them.
Had they handled the PR after the third frac better, we believe the stock price would not have fallen as low as it did. We have taken advatnage of this fact to increase our holdings at a price we never thought we would see again. We may show our bias or our naivety ,in believing that this was not a deliberate ploy by the Lenecs to purchase options at a lower price.That is for you to decide.But the critics of management certainly helped to achieve the drop in the price.Perhaps shareholders should ask the critics what their objective was.
[6] We have now reached our maximum commitment and will ride Jim's coattails to the gains we believe are only a matter of time.Here, we would like to correct a posting which was made by us earlier.It is our understanding that the agreement with Mr. T. West commits Anvil to drill the Second Target well by the end of December [not October] and that completion to connection must be by the end of March,1999.However it is to Anvil's advantage to proceed with as much speed as prudently possible, to get their cash flow in place.
Anvil has the experts outside the family and directors [although rumour has it that may change] in Tom West and Whalen to develop this field and eventually production will be achieved to justify the price premiums we believe this play deserves,We feel the recent Downing Report has been overly conservative by at least 50% as to the true worth of this and susequent developments.
But each investor must make up his/her mind whether they are prepared to wait out the necessary time or move to what they feel may have more earlier momentum.
In the current market atmosphere we are wary of many so-called "major opportunities" in this market.Why leave a realized find for pie in the sky.We feel we are being defensive in our positioning not aggressive.
We will continue to lurk on SI and HHappy will continue to lurk on SH,but we will only post if we feel we can contibute something concrete.We will NOT do Anvil's PR work for them.If they wish to promote the stock, let them do it.If not, we are confident that the cash flow and earnings from Texas will justify significant Stock price appreciation.
Voisey Bay may be an added feature here[ again rumours are of some Major interest] but until Inco solves its problem with Newfoundland and the price of nickel rises, meaningful gains to Anvil's stock price seems a year or two away, if ever.
See you on the beaches if we live long enough and good luck to all.
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