Liquivent is only one of the three products that is in late stage development (Phase III, or about to begin Phase III). Oxygent (a blood substitute) and Imagent (an ultrasound contrast agent) are the other two.
The reason the Alliance's stock is in the tank, IMO are as follows:
1. They lost Liquivent partner (Hoescht) because the product trials was taking more time than initially anticipated.
2. They had to restructure their Oxygent agreement with Johnson and Johnson, because (acording to ALLP) J&J wanted to conduct additional trials to examine the efficacy of this drug as a heart drug (more potential rev.)
3. The market for biotech development stage companies has been extremely poor of late with high profile product cancellations (Baxter), product launch delays (AVIR), and patent fights (SNUS, MB).
Some of these are in market segments that ALLIance hopes to fill.
4. ALLP has been "talking the talk", i.e., promising for a long time now. Wall Street has a "show me" attitiude towards the company, and once NDA for its drugs are files, I think the perception of value will improve.
5. The number of analysts following te company has dropped of in the last couple of years - so it has a very low profile on the street.
I have not come across anything which would suggest that there may be a problem with the products (technically), due to which I continue to hold and accumulate (have done so over the last 5 years). Given the promise, I think long term holders of this stock will feel envious that new entrants can buy it at such a low price (relative to where the stock has been over the last few years (high signle digits and teens).
Regards
Alok |
