Turs,
While I generally agree that plato won't have a major short term impact on HYSL and longer term the plato threat will decline as HYSL focuses on offering end to end solutions. Plato does have hooks to ORCL data structures.
Still, plato will run far more efficiently if the data warehouse is in sql server and I suspect that the vast majority of customers seeking olap solutions that have non-sql-server data sources will not be anxious to add a sql-server data warehouse platform if another database engine is the primary transaction repository. That said, plato isn't an absolute non-issue.
The thing that many people miss as a concept is that the license cost alone isn't a primary determinant of project return on investment.
Plato will be inexpensive because it is included with the cost of sql server. But how will the total costs increase if the data warehouse has to be in a sql server environment as opposed to an oracle environment? Will building, deploying and managing plato applications be more or less expensive than a solution from HYSL?
HYSL will offer the integration server, completed applications and global services and support capability in addition to a mature robust and scalable multiplatform engine. Most major enterprise decisions are made based on functionality and total cost, including deployment and ongoing management, not just license fees.
Plato will likely be very successful as an entry level olap product for people to experiment with. In addition, over time, it will likely be a robust offering for those organizations that have pure NT environments.
The analytical market looks like it could be as large or larger than the transaction processing space. HYSL has plenty of business to pursue.
The plato issue will get resolved in two ways:
1) HYSL continues to execute well and maintain decent rates of growth.
2) The product ships and we can see how plato actually stacks up in performance, scalability, reliability and functionality. Right now, it can be positioned as a product with unlimited capability.
Here's what I'm doing, I am actively conversing with engineers in the industry that don't have an axe to grind either way. I'm talking to folks that have used and deployed Essbase in enterprise class solutions and are actively testing plato to see how it shapes up. The important thing is to find people that fundamentally don't care which product is better. That's the challenge. An awful lot of people in the analytical industry have unusual motivations and bias, so your source of research has to be carefully considered before you give weight to their opinions.
So to sum up, I generally agree with your assessment. Plato will be a minor factor to Essbase standalone, but an immaterial impact for HYSL as a whole.
The investment community may not begin to agree with that conclusion until plato actually is a real shipping product and it can be assessed in the open market.
TD |
