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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading
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To: Optim who wrote (721)9/28/1998 4:28:00 PM
From: LastShadow  Read Replies (2) of 43080
 
DCLK and trendlines

Actually, I entered DCLK near close, but will post as a Position Trade for tomorrow morning at open. That may turn out to be a better price, but I know I won't be at the screen at that time.

As for the trendlines, it is a fundamental skill, but it isn't a tool with finesse. In order to obtain better entries and exits, or to deal with more than a few stocks at a time, one needs to move to more sophisticated tools like TA. The other thing to consider is that realizing when a stock is peaking can be difficult without some confirmation from TA or nets. (I know Optim uses neural nets, so pardon the general intrusion to the thread with this.) One can over simplify and be just as wrong as when they over analyze. The goal is to find a set of tools that provide some confirmation without duplicating each's analysis. Using one momentum indicator is sufficient. Using one Accumulation/money flow indicator is enough. using one moving average is adequate. Using them to compliment one another is appropriate if the stock's trading history supports the relevancy of doing so.

Using nets to look for patterns is fine as long as patterns exist and repeat. I personally don't believe that anything random occurs, only that a pattern exists we do not yet understand. And as long as we are dealing with the psychological reaction of a mass of traders and more importantly fund managers, that too is patternable. Determining a pattern is relatively easy. Whether that pattern is predictable of specific stock price movement is the issue.

Don't give up on the sophisticated tools. Just don't lose sight of the basics or the larger view.

lastshadow
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