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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (29249)9/28/1998 8:53:00 PM
From: Brad Bolen  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
RE:
Here's how: They would play a game that was fairly even odds like blackjack or roulette, and placed a small
bet. If they won, they keep the winnings, and make the same small bet again. If they lost, they would double
the bet. They would keep doubling the bet until they won (these guys had suitcases full of money). The odds of
them hitting a losing streak long enough to deplete their resources were quite small, and they basically cleaned
out the house.

Now if you or I tried to use that same strategy, odds are that we wouldn't be able to come up with enough
capital to double the bet in a matter of a few days (I've done the math)

Terry,

With all respect, you may have done the math, but may not have played the game.

First, if you do use a double up strategy, sooner or later you WILL get nailed.

Second, Casinos use house limits for bets at the tables. A high limit game of say 10 grand per bet would be great for a while if you were betting 100 buck chips and could double lose. But sooner or later you would hit your wittle head on the ceiling.

Bet 1-- 100
Bet 2-- 200
Bet 3-- 400
Bet 4-- 800
Bet 5-- 1600
Bet 6-- 3200
Bet 7-- 6400
Bet 8-- 10,000 (limit)

Can you lose 8 bets in a row? Can you lose 20 bets in a row?

I saw it happen once.

As applied to the stock market I'm not sure what the results would be since (one) you have the time factor. You are in control of the timing of your buys and sells, and (two) you have a historic upward bias in prices.

Regardless, I wish you good luck.

B.
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