Mike,
I just recently ran across this thread after a mention on a Semi-equip thread and have lurked here a week or two. I find it both insightful and entertaining.
I have gathered the thread's forecast of the "commoditized" PC and the resulting losers, but I was wondering who (if any) do you see _benefiting_ from the sub-zero PC, both in terms of industries and companies? A PC (or three) in every home at low entry prices seems to open new markets, but I'm not sure who benefits - intense competition may eliminate margins.
In general, I see the Internet, CSCO, benefitting from this. ISP demand should be strong, but don't think we can expect outsized returns here? Bandwidth enhancers like CIEN win. MSFT wins, as its software is likely to cost more than the PC before long, nearly immune to price pressure. Entertainment Software in general will continue to grow rapidly, but I think supply may outstrip demand in this area. (too many titles to choose from IMO). I guess demand for mobile wireless internet connections will have strong demand in the future but I am unaware of companies in this area. Web services and E-commerce become a logical extension of the move to the internet - who wins?
Do you have a -vision- of how this plays out? Who are the big winners, and in what emerging areas, if any, do you see opportunity?
Thanks for any comments.
Shane |
