Paul, It was interesting to watch what happened to Ascend when they combined with Cascade. A couple of things were happening. One was a consolidation of customer base as ISP's merged. The same is happening in RBOC's. This merging caused confusion and slowed purchases as companies had to re-review purchase plans and make strategic equipment decisions. Ascend also had some trouble with product migration which I don't think will be an issue for NT.
Also, it takes time to get to companies to mesh. Maybe they'll be taking some charges as they decide where they can cut some fat. Maybe there are some surprises in BAY? Personally, I'd like to think they won't let things stay unchanged at BAY as they seemed to need some fixing, but then again you can say House's job was not finished and to run in and change things willy nilly would be worse.
One thing seemed sure that their everything's rosey picture when the merger was announced was not true. They do have competing product lines. They do have to make some changes and it doesn't seem likely that they can let Bay be a stand alone company.
If nothing else, there is uncertainy. Just look at your post.
''Any deviation from that, you are going to have a problem,'' said
Robert MacLellan, an analyst with Kearns Capital in Toronto. ''If they
don't pull a rabbit out of a hat tomorrow, this stock's in for some
serious downward momentum.''
They've got to do some selling to convince the many people who feel BAY is a loser. Why else pull rabbit out of the hat. After all, these are 2 well know companies. Why should there be such confusion.
And again, NT may be waiting to fall if Lucent makes some killer acquisition.
Anyway, it doesn't seem possible for NT to know with any certainty what is happening yet. I wonder how they can say anything that will change people's views? Certainly this rabbit will be skinny.
Regards,
Mark |
