Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Ploni who wrote (14158)	9/29/1998 2:58:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) of 18691

>> Japan can always cut their rates, right? Oh, wait a minute, they're already 1/2%. << Actually Japan cut rates by 50% to 1/4%. >> Things don't look too good in Russia << Yeah, but that's no secret anymore. The market needs unexpected news to go down further. >> I don't think the U.S. can bail out everybody, and wish we'd stop trying. << Government officials and people on Wall St. don't want the system to fall apart, so they will do just about anything to keep the party going. There is $10 trillion in U.S. stock market wealth on the line. Of course the things they do to keep the charade intact only weaken the system further. Take for example this cut in interest rates. Everybody thinks it's such a good idea for Greenspan to save the world and our markets by easing. I think that is completely the wrong thing to do. It will only serve to fuel a rally which is not what we need right now. We need a good long stretch of weakness in our markets to dampen expectations and lower optimism. Fueling a rally with a series of rate cuts will only serve to increase the disparity between valuations and fundamentals. The last thing we need is a rally so Coke, Gillette, Disney, etc can go back to PE's of 40-50 while they report earnings declines. #!?&%*@#$--XAU just won't quit. Didn't buy those calls like I should have. P.S. Companies like Coke are going to have PE's of 40-50 again in the not so distant future. You can quote me on that.

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