However, suddenly suggesting that analysts should be leading indicators for AAPL, not trailing, is rather humorous.
Suggesting the reverse is equally humorous. As I said, analysts have earlier access to merger rumours and studies from PCData/Dataquest reporting nationwide sales.
If a quarter is profitable because of great cost-cutting, analysts have not many ways of knowing this in advance, and thus they trail. If a quarter is profitable because of great retail sales they have the contacts to know that in advance.
I know it is fashionable to poh-poh analysts in online forums, but assuming they are plain trailing drones is wrong.
They were off by 83.33% in Q1, 137.5% in Q2, and 52% in Q3.
See my comments above regarding external vs internal factors in profitability.
Why do analysts still forecast .48 for this quarter?
Oh, I'm not talking of forecasts. I had in mind something like Fidelity, which rather than giving better and improved recommendations, they went and bought out over 10% of the shares. Trading patterns suggest that mutual funds were not taking large positions last week. |
