PK, 1. Yes, I have a 1/3 position of puts in MU. That is as low as I ever get as long as it is over fair value, which I calculate at $6.
2. So far, the Intel story is rumor. It makes no sense at all for Intel, but that doesn't mean it will not happen. The source, CMP, is a usually fairly reliable one, which is the only reason I give it a 25% probability of being true. You cannot determine the risk of a potential share buy until you know the terms of the deal. 1% at a 25% discount to the market would not be positive. 49% at a 50% premium to the market would be. Everything else in between has to be figured if and when the news is on the table.
3. I never know time frames with MU. You just never know what kind of total crap MU bulls will believe next. I do know that every time the stock collapses, it does so rapidly and severely and I don't want to have no position in that environment. Right now they are still scamming the penny or so pickup in DRAM prices, not noting that the ASP last quarter, where they lost tons of money, is still higher than these new, "stabilized" prices. True, MU is lowering costs, but demand is sucko.
4. MU nearly cracked $60 last year in circumstances somewhat like this, though the balance sheet has deteriorated much further since then. The company is a loser and the stock is a long term loser, but it has 1000s of rah-rah types who have yet to learn how to do arithmetic.
MB |
