Shane, Your comment about Ciena being a potential winner cockled the warms of my heart. <G>
The commoditization of the pc is going to work, long term, in favor of the users, the real, non-tech business community. It will eventually change the current meager benefits of the boxes to a tool that is both useful and useable, and cost effective. So, I see the big winners the European mfrs who have not purchased during the manic, "gotta have it but I don't know why" phase. American firms, which paid too much to get too little, will be relative losers longer term.
As far as tech firms go, software and internet have to be the areas of rapid growth. The problem, which you mentioned with the game software, is that too many people know about this and there is huge competition. Also, there is a strong tendency to not pay for anything that comes over the internet. I know I follow that route intensely. <G>
So, with software, you have to go with the firms that have something unique and hot and know that it won't last long and that eventually you will be able to download it free from the net, legally or otherwise.
On the internet side, I see problems over the long haul for Cisco and Lucent. More and more they are going to be competing over a growing but price sensitive market. Tellabs may also be in that mix if they will make another bid for my Ciena. <G> And we all know that it isn't sales that matter with these helium companies, it is margins.
I see no long term upside for internet firms that rely on advertising to make money. Net advertising simply doens't work.
However, I see a lot of upside for those who supply the guts to the internet players: security, financial checks, speed boosts, even site development. Some of these I like include Verisign, MetaGroup and Segue. I would like to buy them lower, but, then, unless they are at zero, I always want to buy them lower.
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