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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 255.48-1.1%Jan 16 3:59 PM EST
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To: Eric Yang who wrote (18651)9/29/1998 12:34:00 PM
From: Richard Habib  Read Replies (1) of 213182
 
First, the fact that the major brokers have managed to screw up 3 qtrs should give you pause that they will manage to screw up another qtr. When a pattern this simple develops - when making money in a stock becomes this routine it's wise to become quite paranoid. Simple patterns don't normally exist for any length of time.

Second, I doubt that the .49 estimate is that important. While not that many analysts follow the stock, a much larger body of institutional investors are following the stock and it's likely that the whisper number will be quite a bit higher. If Apple fails to make that number or fails revenue or other benchmarks that the street's collective opinion is looking for, the stock will be punished.

Third, Apple will probably not get a flock of upgrades anytime soon. It's already priced with other computer manufacturers, after this qtr it will only have a short track record of 4 profitable qtrs behind it and for the foreseeable future it's long term outlook will always be problematic since it's arrayed in the streets mind against the Wintel industry - arguably the most successful industry in history.

Apple did get a bit of institutional buying this morning. Saw a 50,000 and a 36,000 share block that looked to be on the buy side. Rich
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