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To: goldsnow who wrote (20092)9/29/1998 7:10:00 PM
From: CIMA  Read Replies (1) of 116762
 
Fractures Appear in Indonesian Security Apparatus

On Tuesday, September 29, Indonesian army cavalry troops clashed
with members of a police mobile brigade in Sungai Raya, West
Kalimantan province, on the island of Borneo. Media reports are
contradictory on what sparked the clash – either insults hurled
at a soccer match or following a marching contest – but agree
that this was the second confrontation between these units this
year, the first being a brawl three months ago. It was,
however, the first time the feud had involved armed combat.
Eyewitnesses report that armored vehicles from the cavalry
headquarters opened fire on buildings in the police compound,
raking them and nearby vehicles with machinegun fire. Soldiers
and police officers also reportedly clashed inside the barracks.
Officially, there were nine people hospitalized and no
fatalities, though witnesses report up to three dead in the
battle. Military police are now reportedly in control of the
situation, and the units involved have been confined to their
barracks.

Indonesia's National Police are currently part of the Indonesian
Armed Forces (ABRI), though there have been increasing calls
since the resignation of President Suharto for the police to
become an independent body. A decision on separating the
organizations was scheduled for September 30.

The clash in Sungai Raya, though apparently the product of a
long-running feud between the two units involved, takes on
greater significance in the context of current instability in
Indonesia. Indonesia's military are the primary unifying force
in a nation made up of multiple islands, ethnic groups, and
religious groups. The military has also been the prime mover in
Indonesian politics. That an internal feud could be allowed to
erupt in gunfire, even as the military is on heightened alert in
the face of nearly continuous anti-government demonstrations,
signals at least a breakdown in command and control and, in the
extreme, the potential for a broader schism to form within the
ABRI, with some elements possibly supporting the opposition.

There are other signs of less than complete unity in the ABRI.
Several retired army officers, including Major General Theo
Syafei and Major General R. K. Sembiring Meliala, have joined the
Megawati Sukarnoputri faction of the opposition Indonesian
Democratic Party (PDI). General Syafei was formerly an Udayana
regional commander and is a former member of the military faction
in Indonesia's House of Representatives, while General Sembring
Meliala is also a former member of the House of Representatives.
The two prominent generals said they opposed the government
manipulation that fractured the PDI. It is unclear whether the
retired general's moves reflect deeper fractures within the
active military. If officers begin to take opposing sides in the
country's political debate, it would immediately weaken the
military as a unified tool of the state, and could even lead to
armed clashes between opposing factions. If existing tension
within the military can erupt in gunfights like that seen in
Sungai Raya, the introduction of political factionalism could
lead to civil war.

In a possibly related move, on September 29, Indonesian Armed
Forces Commander and Defense Minister General Wiranto announced
that the military was not opposed to a rally by Megawati's
faction, scheduled for next month on the island of Bali. General
Wiranto said the armed forces had no objection to the rally, as
long as it did not threaten or disrupt the security of the
tourist industry in Bali. Megawati's supporters had vowed to
hold the rally with or without an official permit, despite
threats from the National Police.

Also on September 29, General Wiranto announced to Indonesia's
Parliament that the government was abandoning a proposed law that
would have strictly controlled the size and scope of political
demonstrations. Wiranto said the government would submit an
alternative bill that would balance freedom of expression against
the need for law and order. The retraction of the proposed bill
comes less than a week after Indonesian President B. J. Habibie
urged the armed forces to crack down on anti-government
demonstrators. Habibie said, "I am instructing the whole ranks
of ABRI to take preventive and proactive steps and actions,
coupled with a wise but firm attitude, to immediately put a halt
to these activities." He said the military should target
"individuals or groups who are openly engineering things to make
the situation uncontrollable, unsafe, and unstable."

General Wiranto has recently warned that security officials had
uncovered patterns in recent disturbances that "resemble actions
taken by the outlawed Indonesian Communist Party (PKI)." The
failed 1965 palace coup that marked the rise of Suharto and the
decline of Sukarno was attributed to the PKI, and the nationwide
purge of alleged communists that followed resulted in the deaths
of an estimated 500,000 to 1 million people and the presumed
annihilation of the PKI. Particularly targeted in the purge was
Indonesia's Chinese minority, which also fell victim to the riots
in May of this year that helped topple Suharto. With apparent
fractures surfacing in the military, an unclear military policy
toward demonstrations, and talk of a threat from a resurgent PKI,
Indonesia's Chinese minority cannot feel secure. Foreign
companies operating in Indonesia should also be prepared for the
worst, as we are seeing two competing trends developing -- either
a divided military and civil war, or the launching of an
aggressive, nationalistic campaign against a real or fabricated
foe in an effort to force unity in the ranks.

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