Another iMac article
mercurycenter.com
This one brings up some interesting new information. First, it states that analysts believe iMac margin is roughly 20%. It does not state, however, which analysts think that or on what basis they do.
Still interesting, though. If it's true, then even my 24.8% estimate sounds high. In fact, a quick rough calculation suggests something like 24.1% net margin if this is true. That would reduce my current estimate to .59-.60.
A few more tidbits from the article:
They put the advertising number at $150 million. I seem to recall $100 million. What's up there?
Repeats the notion that analysts are expecting 400-600,000 iMacs shipping by end of year. But words from Mazzucchelli suggests he may have upgraded his estimates again. First, he estimated $400 million in iMac revenue for Q4 (he also predicted $1500 million total revenue). Then he says Apple might ship 450,000 iMacs in Q1. That adds up to almost 800,000 iMacs by year-end, higher than his most recent revised estimate.
Incidentally, I find Lou's numbers rather questionable. By suggesting $400 of the $1500 million revenue as coming from the iMac, he is by extension implicating a huge decrease in sales of other Macs--a supposition that flies in the face of the market data out there suggesting a 20% increase in sales.
Overall, one of the most balanced articles I've read in a while. Makes the Washington Post front-page spread look pathetically biased (which it was).
Andrew |
