Papaya: I'm a bit concerned that the US dollar index will pick up the lower trend line at about 93 and, after that, continue up again, more slowly. There is also a lower trendline, still.
decisionpoint.com
Therefore we have to wait until then to be sure if the dollar is REALLY over the top. But, of course, by that time the party is nearly over already!
Fundamentally, there is a contradiction between the interests of the US which require a firm dollar and the interests of the rest of the world which need a weaker dollar so that their capital stops draining into the US markets. As you saw today, Alan baby is still backing the US!
Clearly, gold is struggling to get above $300 and may still take some time to do it. In my mind, however, a sideways drift, rather than a significant fall, is more likely. AS you see on the bottom chart, the gold price is at a critical stage now and anything is possible.
As I mentioned, in an earlier post, there are bullish and bearish factors so it's hard to say what IS going to happen. |
