Elan's CEO is an astute guy who had built an Irish? company into a force in the pharma world, they are building from generic drugs cash flow and becoming a kind of biotech consolidator (like the big ones AMGN,BGEN,CHIR).
If Elan takes Ligand's scientific prowess, and adds their business savvy , marketing power ,plus cash flow is a plus for everyone.
Give and take. No biotech science is a sure deal, Elan's money is.
Why make a deal with a big pharma company for the usual 10% to 20%, or worse the pathetic 3% Lgnd got for droloxifene from Pfizer (due to muscle exercise from the big Pfizer)if they can deal partially or totally with a more fair partner with almost the same marketing capabilities?
Morphelan is not a great shot, neither science, neither money. Actual morphine is cheap by the cents, very tough to beat, but it will be a cash generator. My rough guess $20 to $30 million a year for this type of product, some 10% of the total morphine market(I do not have the exact figures now, but this is what I remember from my time researching NTII Dynorphin-A, I will have to research it again).
If Lgnd try to get money in the open market the shares will drop probably 25 to 50% or more, if they are able at all. Next choice is , the kind of funds that will short it to hell (like recent Xoma or Pars)to pick them at much lower prices without no limit.
Can Elan try to short Lgnd? I am not sure if that strategy is feasible for them, anybody knows?
Still holding my $14.50 shares, I am looking for my next entry point. |
