I don't think people yet realises,, that the new Bundesminister of Germany is a devout Marxist from 60's ,, hiding behind the SPD,, center left,, Bunde is facing deficit for first time in several decades,, due to E.Germany , Russia and dole folks who wants 8 weeks paid holiday,,,, 4 weeks more than working folks,, saying that it is more stressful to be unemployed .
Brazil needs at least 200 billion to stay float.. at the moment they have 11 bill ,,after the flight to quality of some 50 bill in last 2 weeks,, IMF has only 40 bill ,, US has 20 bill for first time in 15 years,,, which republicans wants to give it away as a tax cut to bribe the voters for coming Nov. elections,,
By Oct 15th ,,Brazil needs some 12 bill for just for debt service,,, IMF or no IMF ,, country is in a dire,, Cramer wrote about Tiurkish Telecom ,, going to 30 cents,, due to devaluation,, what could happen to TBR .. indeed G-7 will come to some sort of aid,, but how much and where is not clear... as they are also feeling the pain slow growth and eroding consumer confidence,,
Chief economists from Morgan and Salomon are calling recession going into 1999,, Dr, Yardeni calls DOW 5500 - 6000 in 1999 ,, so did John Murphy ,, on Sept 20th ,,
Truth lies somewhere between 6000 and 8000 ,, and we will swing in between ..
Yes you are absolutely right ,, the qt is officially over in a day ,,
MMs will sell both winners and losers to come up with that 20% growth portfolio ,, and as we go in to ,, December ,,tax write off sell on the dogs,,
I've noticed that Dec 15th ,,you will find stocks most down,, that is the time to buy for January effect.. but I do not know if we will have a January effect next year,,
My only regrets,,
I called Russia down fall ,, in Oct of 97 ,, I called market erosion in June ,, I did not have the real market savvy or guts to short the mothers in July ,, who in the hell would have thought LEH will go to 29 or G to 30 ..
GGGGGGG |
