Doug, we had this discussion in early -97. Ever since, I've been trying to look for signs that CDMA handsets are closing the gap. I haven't seen any. Nokia improved their best standby time by nearly 200% last February when they launched their new product line. They shaved off nearly 50% from the weight of their lightest phone with the introduction of 8810 this month. They are now offering 50 gram weight reduction in their first GSM 900/1800 phone compared to Ericsson's offering. These are major break-throughs, delivered steadily in all major markets worldwide, together with radically new designs.
Now Qualcomm is launching their new Q-phone nearly a year later and it is offering a 90% drop compared to Nokia's February -98 achievement level. Old design. Mediocre weight. What happened to Qualcomm's product line in 1998? Almost nothing. It's a lost year. Motorola's CDMA troubles seem to continue. Samsung is pushing ahead the introduction of its new phone (which has an inferior standby time). People here say that consumers don't care... well they do care in Asia and Europe. I'm not buying this idea that they don't care in USA. It may take them a while to wise up, but week after week, Nokia's buzz is driving home the point.
Besides, CDMA's troubles in Hong Kong are already significant. Overwhelming number one in sales is Nokia's 6110. The hottest phone in town is Nokia 8810, for which people are paying 1'000 US dollars - the orders are clogged up until November. Customers are flying in from Singapore just to get the phone. The most affluent Asian clients are flocking to GSM, seduced by dazzling design, low weight (which is a big deal in Asia) and those standby times. We will see this replayed in Australia and Mexico when they launch CDMA. The Chinese situation is already putting other Asian countries off CDMA. The handset situation *is* evaluated by operators considering pros and cons of CDMA and GSM... and they are after high-end users, for which CDMA cannot offer executive models. The promise of narrowing the quality gap sometime in future is not enough, the decisions driving the standard battle are being made right *now*.
Next year Ericsson's and Nokia's offerings in USA will have Bluetooth that will synchronize the wireless communication to fax machines and PC's. The new Symbian software will unite GSM and TDMA smartphones from Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola and Toshiba. These developments just deepen the technological isolation of IS-95.
Tero |
