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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 247.63+0.4%3:59 PM EST
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To: Linda Kaplan who wrote (18711)9/30/1998 11:17:00 AM
From: Richard Habib  Read Replies (1) of 213182
 
Linda, Jerry occasionally discusses an astrologic oscillator that apparently shows good agreement with market moves over an extended period of time. The point is while this obviously must be true - there is no real correlation there. Likewise Elliot wave which is a very simple system apparently shows some past agreement. Since Apple has price surges on earnings every 4 months I suppose you would get a major wave every 4 months. Suppose Apple had terrible earnings this qtr or suppose SJ quit - the stock would plunge and that would be the end of any apparent elliot wave correlation. You can take one of these retail investment programs like Wall Street for Windows and fine tune one of the "systems" to give you nearly perfect past "correlation". While there may be some random future agreements there is no real correlation. I do believe some technicals are useful but really they just distill our instinct. For instance we probably all knew the market would decline today based on events yesterday. IMO technicals just quantify the knowledge of the market we already internalize if we watch it all the time. I also believe some day teh market will be successfully modeled but were going to need a lot more computing power. Rich
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