just a reminder...we did go below 8026 print yesterday
I have been seeing some people dog jerry favors over the past week or so...hmmmmmmm remember his top to top date ends Oct 6 I believe..
o: +Electric (16023 )
From: +dennis michael patterson
Monday, Sep 28 1998 11:13PM ET
Reply # of 16081
FAVORS!
Jerry Favors Analysis - Monday, September 28, 1998 8 p.m.
Last evening we stated that we should see some further
rally in this time frame. At the highs today the Dow was up
130 points. We closed up 80 points. Today was a fair day for
the Dow but not so great for the market as a whole. The
breadth at the close showed only 484 more advances for the
day than declines. That is not strong action. The Nasdaq at
the highs was up 26 pts, the equivalent of a 120 point rally
in the Dow. However the Nasdaq closed down 4.37. Once again
there were significantly more new lows for the day than new
highs.
However the dominant factor in the market this week will
be whether or not the Fed decides to lower interest rates
tomorrow. We have no crystal ball when it comes to the Fed.
If the Fed does decide to lower rates that could spark a
strong rally,at least short term. We still have a short term
projection calling for 8345 plus or minus 91 points
intraday. The top of the 21-Day 3 1/2% Exponential Trading
Band today was 8319 intraday. The top of the band tomorrow
should be in the area of 8339 intraday. That is where the Dow
will encounter significant resistance to any rally.
There are still a few technical considerations which
could support the case for higher prices short term. The
Trin-5 today closed at 5.79,still close to an oversold
reading. When the Trin-5 is near or above 6.00 you will
normally soon see some further rally in the Dow. Today's
5.79 reading is still close enough to 6.00 that it could
support some further rally.
The 5-Day RSI on the Dow closed at 61.79. The RSI does
not reach overbought territory until it exceeds 70 so this
too would allow for some further rally short term.
Any rally tomorrow morning above 8154 on a print basis
will give a short term buy signal off the hourly charts.
However if so that signal would only be good for tomorrow
only and would be cancelled entirely if the Dow falls below
8026 on a print basis.
Our bottom line is that we do not want to go short
ahead of any possible Fed easing tomorrow. We want the Fed
news to be totally behind us before we go short.
We believe it is now just a matter of days before the
time comes for us to go short. Stock traders we will give you
a list of candidates over the next couple of days. Mutual
fund switchers will be going long the Rydex Ursa Fund. We
will also be shorting the Dow Diamonds.
To: +dennis michael patterson (16046 )
From: +dennis michael patterson
Tuesday, Sep 29 1998 8:03PM ET
Reply # of 16081
Electric/BEEBS!! Favors posts tonight that he will be short on THURSDAY. He wants
to give the M one more day to rally. Here is what he said:
Jerry Favors Analysis - Tuesday, September 29, 1998 8 p.m.
Last evening we discussed the fact that an easing of
interest rates by the Fed was likely and that if the Fed
eased it would suggast some further rally in the Dow. The
Fed decided to lower rates by a 1/4 of a point. However the
Fed easing did not spark a significant rally in the Dow. The
Dow closed down 27.04 points for the day. However it could be
a mistake to take today's action as definative as to how the
market will eventually respond to the new Fed Policy. In
terms of the stock market what appears to be most obviuos
reponse is not necesarily the most accurate. The most
important consideration on the market came from whether the
Fed decided to lower rates or not. The Fed did decide to
lower rates but not as much as the market had hoped. The Dow
was down as much as 93 points today but closed down only
28.32. As disappointed as the market may have been that the
cut in rates was not larger than it was the market did not
fall apart. Some further rise in stock prices is still
probable near near term because we do believe lower interest
rates are still probable . However just as lower interest
rates in Japan did not halt the Bear Market lower interest
rates here in the US will not prevent a Bear Market. The
question will be whether the lower rates here in the US can
prevent a serious market downturn. We do not believe so.
For now we will give the market one more day but by Thursday
we will want to begin shorting this market, rally or no rally.
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o: +manny t (53889 )
From: +lisa
Friday, Sep 25 1998 3:39PM ET
Reply # of 54329
cnbc story
some brokerage houses may have sold forward calls on the income for this hedge fund
which only worsens the debacle....
favors coming up on CNBC
says bear market
rally after fed lowers but it will fail...
top to top count
key date 9/30
25 to Oct 6 range...
dont think we have seen final high in this time frame...maybe 8300 to 8400 and
sometime next week
21 day 3 1/2 exp. trading band
top 532
I think he is talking about the composite on that...they had New York something or
other on the graph.. |
