Fred, good background on this issue is the link in the recent post that I repost below:
_____
'+John Mansfield (458 )
From: +C.K. Houston
Monday, Sep 14 1998 2:09AM ET
Reply # of 477
ERNST & YOUNG TELLS WHAT TO EXPECT ... NOT GOOD
Millennium Infrastructure Project reports to govt' in UK
Date: Sun, 13 Sep 1998 23:46:16 +0100
From: "Alistair Mann" <misc@lgeezer.demon.co.uk>
Newsgroups: comp.software.year-2000
The project above was undertaken by the Central IT Unit, which appears to be
responsible directly to the UK Cabinet Office.
The report itself was undertaken by Ernst & Young, and they were briefed to "identify
the main processes which make up the country's essential services infrastructure, the
interdependencies between the processes, and the potential outcomes of process
failures".
Note to readers:
Populationwise, a UK County is more directly comparable to a US State than to a US
County. I interpret region to mean an area including multiple counties and/or the major
cities on their own.
Among the gems herein, are:
Critical failures in the Magistrates- and Crown- Courts system (essentially, the
criminal courts as opposed to the civil courts):
Impact will be civil disorder inside one week, affecting parts of the UK or majorly
impacting localities.
Critical failures in the maintenance of public order (essentially, the Police):
Impact will be loss of life and civil disorder inside 24 hours, affecting the entire country.
Commercial inefficiency would be seen inside 7 days.
Critical failures in social provision, apparently including the NHS (Natl Health).
Loss of life and civil disorder possible at local levels inside a month.
Critical failures in dealing with Deaths: Note: EVERY dependancy, except two,
are marked as 'Critical'. One is "Provide oil". The other is "Perform religeous services".
Critical failures would lead to regional public health problems inside a month.
Critical failures in emergency services:
Loss of life: Inside 24 hours, affecting regions
Civil disorder: Inside 7 days, affecting regions
National economy: visible inside 1 month, affecting regions
Public Health: Inside 7 days, affecting regions
Critical failures in paying welfare: Note: I notice that one of the impacts considered
here is the effect of critical failures on the New Deal, the current gov'ts pet project.
Personal hardship: Inside one week, affecting entire country.
Civil disorder: Inside a month, affecting entire country (with a note that public
perception may require this to be modified to inside a week)
Political Impact of New Deal failures: Inside a week, affecting regions or entire
country.
The above is advice to the UK government, and not necessarily what the goverment
expects.
I've not yet found any info on the expected longevity of these problems. The report
seems to look at the effect of failures on critical dependancies in the national
infrastructure, and their effects.
Find the original report at:
open.gov.uk
This lot tends to support the North kinda view IMO, and I'd be surprised if such an
examination of failure consequences didn't make it to his site. Hope its still up for ya,
Gary!
Alistair Mann
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