PaperChase, Cramer is consistent in the sense that he makes no bones about being an agnostic opportunist when it comes to the markets. Bull or bear - doesn't matter. The intent of his column is not about "what to buy/sell"; it's "how does one think about markets" - how does one identify opportunities and understand the past, present and future market dynamics that surround them and come to a buy/sell/hold/pass decision. I think he does that better than anyone else out there.
The assumptions regarding lower capital expansion, financing difficulties by the Asian players, MU's position as a force to be reckoned with - I agree with them. I don't see them falling apart (although, one can argue the extent to which technological advancements are in fact stealth capacity expansions that could possibly make up for lower capital spending and MU's financial wherewithal - however, IMHO if Goldman, Robbie Stephens, Monty and TXN, MU's newest "i-banker", have to hold a bake-sale to keep it going through the rough times, they will...although, frankly, selling selected internal organs of the grocery clerk/"analysts" at those firms on the black market, that should also be considered...).
One of the problems I see is the "DRAM price freak-out factor". If there's a downtick in prices, will that chase away the short-term money that is under the impression that "this is finally the turnaround"? (I begrudingly agree w/ Kurlak on this one) When a stock can gain and lose 30-50% in a month, you're not dealing with patient money.
I'm surprised it reacted as poorly as it did over the last two days.
Maybe the delay in the TI deal is spooking some people?
Maybe some people haven't yet figured out to beware of ludicrously positive stories appearing in a CMP publication close to the release of an MU earnings report (this one was even better than the "Micron to Take on Intel in Flash" headline of last year), actually thought something w/ INTC would have occurred by now and flipped out of it?
End of the Q?
All I know is that this is one of the few stocks where John Gardner's The Art of Fiction holds more applicable wisdom than One Up on Wall Street and the like <g>
Good trading,
Tom |
