BEA Systems (BEAS) - Undiscovered Growth Stock Message Board

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Technology Stocks : BEA Systems (BEAS) - Undiscovered Growth Stock

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To: treetopflier who wrote (600)	9/30/1998 6:42:00 PM
From: softcash	Read Replies (2) of 2477

ttf, I have a tendency to agree with you However, BEAS has shown strength today considering many stocks took a pounding today and considering the recent downgrade. I was surprised that the acquisition didn't happen sooner. I was thinking mid-late August. BEAS is putting alot of effort towards JAVA and the WEB. Symantec and the latest purchase. If you recall BEAS' behavior from mid July to the beginning od September, BEAS went down in sync with the NASDAQ index. Today IT DID NOT FOLLOW IT DOWN. It is normal to loose 10% or more on an acquisition announcement and normal to loose 10-20% on a single downgrade. So far due to both of these fundamental events BEAS is down from 25 to 20 (low for today) to close at 21 5/8. They have broken the downward trend due to both of these events. The BIG surge at the end was a small vote of confidence in an otherwise confused NASDAQ market. In order for BEAS to go down it needs bad news. There are only two things on the short term horizon: overseas reaction (yet to come) to US markets losses made today and possibly the next 3.5 weeks (max) and upcoming BEAS earnings release. If the market can make it to the last week of October without crashing, the US market and BEAS should do okay for several months afterwards. October is the KEY! However, this is where my biggest doubts are. I have a tendency to agree with you in this regards, that the US markets will have several very disappointing earnings releases around mid October. This will affect everyone including BEAS. If it happens I expect BEAS to approach its recent low of $15-16. $10, I doubt it very much. I would believe $15 much more than $10, especially with a good earnings announcement in October, and even more especially with a stabilization of the US and world markets.

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