Wendy, the turnips have not changed their tune, they still see a "minimelt" in the Sep/Oct period, we are just midway, and well on our way to retest (and I think break) the yearly lows around 7400 or so. The trigger (the Nikkei failure and a rush of pre-announcements ) are in place, the little positive bias the Turnips saw going into the FOMC is fully dissipated. Look at todays numbers, we dropped more than 250 at a point during the day, but the tick never got below -1000, to me, it is an indication that we are not ready to turn yet. Of course, many other technical indicators are still negative as well.
Right now, the turnips are still calling for at least an intermediate bottom later this month (meaning October) with positive bias returning to the market staring early in November, but not enough to get above about 8250-8400 (which will not be a bad ride from a low somewhat under 7400. If we break 7250 on the coming decline (quite a possibility) without a major change in the technicals, who knows where we end up, I surely do not. My turnips have two critical areas the 7200 to 7300 area and the 6200. I doubt we will get the lower target anytime before the end of this year, but I am not ruling this out sometime next spring.
Zeev |
