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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM

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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (3166)9/30/1998 7:53:00 PM
From: Bill Wexler  Read Replies (1) of 4634
 
Strong buy recommendation: COST.

Retailing stocks have been taking huge hits as analysts despair over a possible slowdown in sales for September and this Christmas. Even Wal-mart has been under selling pressure. Costco has sunk about 30% off its highs.

While there is data to suggest that many higher-end retailers (such as TIF) have suffered sales declines (much due to dropoff in purchases made by tourists/foreigners), I think that discussion of a full-bore recession is probably premature. I also believe that the "warehouse" and mass market retailers such as Costco, Home Depot, and Wal-Mart will not only get through the next two quarters OK, they will also experience another growth surge.

Costco is a most compelling bargain and exciting growth story. Costco has become the category killer for warehouse shopping. Costco's superb management has done an outstanding job of bringing high-quality goods to the public at absolute rock-bottom prices and with excellent customer service. Costco's business model is so efficient that Costco is now the overall sales leader among all warehouse club chains (including Sam's clubs). An average Costco does twice the sales of a Sam's club.

Costco's growth is accelerating at every level. Operating margins are expanding as Costco continues to add new members at a rapid pace, a new higher membership tier ("executive members"), and more peripheral businesses such as attached gas stations, tire centers, pharmacies and snack bars.

Costco is now expanding into midwest metropolitan areas such as Detroit and Chicago. I urge investors to visit/call the Detroit warehouses to check on how business is humming along.

There's is nothing to suggest that Costco's growth is slowing, in fact, the exact opposite is true. The market may bounce Costco around in the short term due to fear and uncertainty; however, the patient investor will be richly rewarded.
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