MB,
Crap, I hated that show! Too much testesterone. My 11-year old sister (at the time) loved Estrada. Haven't kidded her about it lately - maybe I will now.
Seriously, though, there are several versions of the chip cycle.
There is a seasonal cycle, an Intel driven cycle, a DRAM density driven cycle, a technology cycle, and a capacity cycle. The most powerful one is the capacity cycle, followed closely by the Intel cycle. The macroeconomic issues affecting end use demand are influencing factors for depth and duration, but are not "causing" the cycle.
From Jan 95 through Aug 95, 4 of 5 cycles were running up, and this year 4 of 5 cycles are running down. But in 1994, the cycles were running counter to each other and can explain why MU was way up, KLIC was down, and the majority of front end equipment guys were flattish for most of the year. In 1997, only 2 of the cycles were up but the stories in the investment community made it sound like 1995 all over again. I avoided the 1997 hype (thank God).
Usually, when someone refers to the "chip cycle" they mean the capacity cycle. However, that does not drive KLIC. This means the fundamentals of the "chip cycle" as you probably referred to do not apply to KLIC.
BTW, I prefer to be called "Z". Z-man was a nickname given to me long ago after a fell asleep in an orientation meeting on the first day on the job after college. eabDad is the handle derived from my email address (Z-man was taken I was told), set a while ago by my wife.
Don't ask...
Z |
