Gottfried, >You were a real contrarian today. :)<
I read, The Yo-Yo Effect, by Richard W. Arms Jr. today and had a discussion with one of the local investor, an retired engineer, who follow the Arms Trin on a daily basis, an plots its moving average. He is very confident in its ability to identify the bottoms.
In looking at the his highest spread we noticed that the spread was greatest in the weeks of 9/1/98 and peaking on 9/4-9/10/98. If you look at the DW Bull percentage charts which I have posted trim data supports the DW weekly lows.
Gottfried, is it possible that DW and your charts all support and have we have hit the bottom.?:)
Is it possible that all of these indicators are wrong? If we are right I really will be happy. Then, we have to start calculating the tops.
Quote form Richard W. Arms, JR. last paragraph: "My findings: Emotionalism is running so high that a relatively small amount of volume has been swinging the market through huge trading ranges. And, history declares, this indicates that the long side of the Street is the place to be right now." Page 17, BARRON'S, 9/28/98
Shorts, Beware.
Just my $.02.
Paul V.
|
