Netscape -- Giant Killer or Flash in the Pan? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Netscape -- Giant Killer or Flash in the Pan?

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To: Jacques Tootight who wrote (4276)	9/30/1998 10:53:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (3) of 4903

Everyone that puts "Cheers" at the end of their posts really mean "jeers". As far as damage control Peter Lynch or Graham and Dodd are concerned, you'll never make it in this business following garbage like that. That is accountancy. That is an evaluation of the past. Prices rise in anticipation of good earnings and that isn't known a priori. The guessers, the gamblers, on higher prices end up being correct a posteriori when the company has delivered good earnings. Balance sheet and income statement analysis never works except in the sense of earnings momentum: an earning company tends to continue to earn. Still doesn't tell you if the stock is rich. You have to take risk and you have to imagine a potential future. That can't be quantified. When it can be, you have to look at selling because great expectations are finally hatching. There is a long term, but there is also a too long term. That means all corporations start at zero, go to very high, and then go back to zero. It's termed, Schumpeteran Evolution. Graham and Dodd don't factor that into their assessment. They just keep telling you that the latest quarter earnings are down and they don't have an opinion on what is appropriate multiple. Does that mean you should sell? It completely depends on what the company is going to do, not on what they were doing. What they were doing is reflected in the stock price. What NSCP has been doing is reflected in its price. The price will rise long before the G & D measure for it is available. You haven't either supported or attacked the thesis. You stated that you don't know if it's right or wrong. Of course you don't know. No one knows. The point is to develop the concept or find weaknesses in it. It may be easily do-able or it may be hopeless. You can reach incredible realizations this way. It is the power of interaction. Interactivity was essential to the Ancient Greek method of education. Now we have lecture and we have a collection of degreed airheads. This will all be changing and NSCP's interactive part will be pivotal.

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