GP:
Ouch is right - what has happened is that the semi-equip
recovery has gently been pushed out another 6-12 months (it was
supposed to start mid 1999 now it is sometime in early 2000! this is
an ay caramba!) Accompanying that I am beginning to see that
the semi recovery is being pushed out to mid 1999 instead of late
this year.
Go figure! (As usual I do not buy it! for the high-end semis at least - for the semi-equips that 600 million in bookings means nothing is present for the next few months. Would suspect retooling would have to
accelerate at some point though. The problem with the semis and
why it could happen is if there is a recession - then forget it - it
will be at least mid 1999 for them (us) to recover - LSI will
do (much) better than most but it won't be mid 40's next year
if there is a recession - that's a gimme! <g>)
Saw this great ad for Avant! and it likely pertains to some of
LSI's problems in the last few quarters:
When design cycles take longer than product cycles,
methodologies must change
And just for the heck of it I visited Samsung's ASIC Cores page
to see just how they were doing.
usa.samsungsemi.com
(not exactly cutting edge are they? <g> + Where's the analog pieces?)
They also have a great ad out for their "Memorized ASICs" (or some such name - idea is to put several types of memory, DSP and RISC on the same chip):
And to think: not so long ago, system-on-a-chip was only vaporware.
If memory serves.
Plus noted that Xilinx with their new families is going after
a lot of the newer markets - STBs included:
The Xilinx products are expected to drive the use of PLDs into the consumer, PC-related and automotive markets. In the consumer market, new applications include digital cameras, digital television, set-top boxes, arcade games and badge and credit card readers. In the PC-related market, the PLDs are targeted at applications such as PCMCIA modem cards, PC screen projectors and graphics boards. In the automotive market, designers are expected to incorporate PLDs into GPS
driver information systems and internal cabin controls.
Like the Samsung cores, just looking at the gate densities and the
markets being targeted, I do not think that overall LSI needs to worry (I should say that the whole STB thing is beginning to bug me since I suspect that that market may be vulnerable to the lower end or just plain processor guys.)
Also as mentioned in a prior post, I did hear an ad on the radio
recommending people move their moey to money market accounts at this
so and so bank to get away from the volatility in the market. And to
think just a few months ago there were (there might still be)
ads on TV asking people to invest in grain futures or take bets
on currency moves. Amazing. But what goes around (viciously) comes around. And it has been coming around with a vengeance.
CRUS got slammed recently - the dangers of the PC world and old
line technology. Yanked this from EN:
"It's interesting how things change and how companies who were on
top at one point are struggling, it really tells you how tough the
semiconductor market is," said Scott Hudson (InStat). "It paints
a pretty bad picture as far as chip companies go that are related
to PCs. I think a lot of this is being driven from the low cost PCs
and people having to figure out how to make money in this new
environment."
Touche! Let the others do the PC thing - the trick with tech
is to be earliest with the newest not mostest with the oldest <g>
Shane. |
