Ed -
As of yesterday 3:00 pm eastern time, my charts show a range of
$4.60 - $13.70
This morning $4.35 - $13.65
First let me say that yes, I do think ALYD is a very speculative play. This Y2K thing is simply something that has never happened before and therefor it is tough to predict what effect it will have on the economy, the individual and etc.... There are both positives and negatives on both side of the coin, so it's a matter of deciphering all the positives and negatives, and making a decision. My reasons for buying at $7 yesterday are as follows :
* Assume the stock hits both the high and low end of charts. The low end is currently only approx $2.50 below current levels. The high end is approx $6.50 above current levels. So yes, I think the risk/reward factor is there. If I lose $2.50 a share, I'll take the loss and life goes on...it won't be a catastrophic loss. If it hits for a $6.50 gain, I'll take my 100% ( 95% )profit and be happy with it.
* Charts change as parameters change. At the current chart levels there is only so much more downside that can occur. It cannot drop below $0.00. The upside is unlimited as there is no " cap " as to how far a share price can move. I have tracked many stocks in the $5 - $10 range that six months later the charts said $25 - $35. Do I think ALYD will shoot upward like a rocket ?? I have no idea, but it at least can if it wants to. I plan on playing this for the short term, but if my charts show a higher price, I will surely listen and stay in until they tell me it's time to bail.
* Earnings are supposed to be positive. I do not think that means didly when it comes to ALYD, but it is better then a bad earnings report.
* I didn't mortgage the farm or take out a huge stake. A simple 2000 share's is all I bought this go round.
* October is here and IF Y2K is gonna be a major problem, it starts very soon. I still have sincere doubts as to how bad the problem will be and how difficult it will be to correct, but since I am a gambling man, I took a shot.
Those are the reasons I bought. Yes, I think it is very risky, but the risky one's tend to pay off the best IF they hit. Don't listen to me, though.....My feelings on ALYD haven't really changed. If you read my past posts, I have spelled out all my doubts, and they haven't changed. The only thing that changed on my end is I decided the risk/reward factor was worth me taking a chance.
Best wishes..... |
