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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: dwight vickers who wrote (6170)12/26/1996 12:26:00 PM
From: Rich Young   of 42771
 
<<I believe though, that if there was ever a stock ready for a Jan. bounce, this is it.>>

Maybe I'm just getting paranoid (I, too, have nightmares of 7 1/2 or even worse), but how certain can we be about a January effect this year? I think for the last three years (all NOVL down years), it has come through, but I'm suspicious this year.

Look at the daily activity at the end of October and beginning of November. Supposedly the "sharp" drop at the end of Oct. was due to fund year-end selling. At the beginning of November, the stock did "rebound" back to the mid-upper 9's, but then resumed its drift back below 9 again. Then came the big buyout rumor on Nov. 8.

I'm not a chart reader, but many have argued persuasively that this was a classic "flag pole & banner" formation (until we broke 10 again). My worry is that the current slow downward trend is just a resumption of the "true" market forces, now that the temporary excitement of a potential buyout has died out.

So I have the side of me that believes everything I read here about valuation & all the other positive things but I can't deny appearances. My brain says buy but my gut's holding it back. HELP!

Rich (I hope like hell I'm wrong & tomorrow our wishes start to come true)
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