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Technology Stocks : VLSI Technology - Waiting for good news from NASDAQ !!!
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To: Kevin Hay who wrote (4493)10/1/1998 2:38:00 PM
From: shane forbes  Read Replies (3) of 6565
 
Kevin:

RE: Shane, were you smart enough to avoid all this nastiness of the
last couple months?

If that pertains to VLSI - a small yes. If that pertains to my
entire portfolio - a huge no!

I was in VLSI in early Feb at 20 and then out at 23 1/2 or so a few weeks later (the wireless thing & luck). Last year was the big VLSI year for me - I could be wrong but I think this stock was my best performer in terms of dollars and capital gains. Got out because of the Asian thing (I never intended to hold VLSI for ever and ever and needed the cash anyway - luck again!). Actually started reestablishing a tiny position on 7/29 just before the stock promptly started its death sprial. Then bought more at 9/11 for a total cost basis of around 10 and a holding period of 6 weeks.

As far as the overall portfolio in early Jan. I cleaned house then
salivated in March/April/May with smaller caps (they were cheap then) only to find them going much cheaper over the next few months. I refuse to sell undervalued stocks even if the market deems otherwise.
(down about 30-40% in entire portfolio over a net holding time of
around 5 months or so).

Not sure what is going on with Mr. VLSI these days - seems a bit of
a mess - but I do allocate some money into stocks that are ugly but overall sound (design skills must mean something - I hope) and
this one qualifies. Heck cash levels are high even taking into
account any effect of the one-time charges and any weakening of
business over the next few months (so in a perverse way buying in
at around cash is a riskless proposition as long as the company is
not a fraud and I don't think VLSI is a fraud - at least I
certainly hope so.)

Only exit strategy I have is to hold on to my "cheap" cyclicals such as VLSI while all those around me are losing their heads <g> and resolutely repeat that over time (the next few years) the chip industry will come back with a vengeance and then it will be 1995 (likely much better) all over again.

In the meantime bloodied and hammered I ignore the ticker. <g>

Shane.
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