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Technology Stocks : 3DFX
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To: Sun Tzu who wrote (7820)10/1/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu  Read Replies (3) of 16960
 
OT -- I've found a great short (I think). Now I give you the description and you tell me if it makes you think you've seen this before.

(1) The company is the leader and the dominant player in its niche, but is not in the mass market where much bigger boys play (though it is trying to play their game).

(2) The shareholders absolutely love the company and deem it as *the* greatest bargain in the market.

(3) The company maintains it is going to meet the estimates and there is nothing out of ordinary.

(4) The analysts are giving it a cold shoulder

(5) The shareholders blame the recent action on end of quarter window dressing and Fidelity's sale of its shares.

(6) The stock has dropped from 50 to 30 in less than a week on heavy volume.

(7) The shareholders are buying near (i.e Nov) way out of money calls (i.e 40 some 33% higher than current price) at very high prices.

(8) All have faith in the management's credibility and expect the price to hit $75 sometime after the earnings announcement, two weeks from now.

(9) The 52 week high on the stock is 61 and it may in fact be at reasonable levels now, but the market dynamics and the actions of itsown otherwise intelligent shareholders is against it.

(10) I asked the shareholders a couple of days ago (when the stock was $10 higher) if it may be time to cut the losses (I did not dare suggest shorting the stock). I was told, we've seen the stock fall to these levels before, it will hit new highs.

(11) No I did not take a time machine to TDFX's old days, I went to KEA thread. Sometimes you can judge yourown actions better if you see it in other people; you might want to pay them a visit.

Sun Tzu
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