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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: William H Huebl who wrote (29767)10/1/1998 7:23:00 PM
From: j g cordes  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
Bill, we attempted a rally early in the day, but as you know things got pretty bad. One of the things I found curious was that Greenspan's testimony was comforting, then a little scary when he confirmed that had they not interceded in LongTerm there would have been significant damage to liquidity.. perhaps world wide. That's pretty scary stuff coming from a Fed chair.

There was a sense of worry today. Yet I must add that in early August I felt we could easily retrace to 6700- 7400 area. Its odd how when what you see begins to materialize it feels different.

What I didn't see was the compounding effect of world selling. The German market falling 7% overnight, the Japanese falling, world growth impinging on future prospects etc. When you look at a chart and see how a target can be made, its not possible to understand the way things will look.

One thing worth noting.. Gold. Has rallied when it should fall with disinflation. Its a psychological hedge as is oil in a sense.. you're buying something tangible that comes out of the ground. I'm watching gold as much as stocks.. they're a savy bunch of traders, generally they know there're not buying a business but trading pure and simple, the worries of the world.

Long AFCI.. added at 6 1/4. Waiting for the Japanese to straighten out there banking system is like waiting for Godot.

Jim
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