Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Tommaso who wrote (29787)	10/1/1998 8:51:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	of 94695

Tommaso,telecom is a difficult business and there is overcapacity. As to my logic regarding treasuries I think aside from shrinking deficit actual surplus and low inflation the treasuries were run up by hedger of CMOS and other corporate debt. As soon as those started to slow down the hedger needed to cover, as a result the sharp rise in prices of treasuries. Would also like to stress out that 30 year treasuries are not less risky than the S&P index over let say 3 to 4 years. As a result at such low interest rates there is the temptation to sell treasuries and run up the S&P. Now my theory is that most smart money manager (I mean the real ones with many billions under management) will be tempted and will do the following to improve returns: Yes I know that fix income people are not equity people, but there are plenty of those that may make the shift even for a short period. Instead to wait one year for a paltry 5% return you can enter the stock market make 3% to 4% in one month and then run back into treasuries. So those are my 2 cents. BWDIK Haim Thanks for the cudos, I still advise them (Tadiran Telecom)in financings

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