What are your thoughts about the highly anticipated Lucent takeover speculation..
Interesting question. If you realize Lucent has made 27 acquisitions over the past 5 years for a total of $7 billion, it makes you wonder if they'd pay twice that for one company. If you say, no, then you have to ask where they'd get ATM/WAN.
My dream team is LU-NN-Efficient Networks-Ericsson (and one other I won't name b/c I think it's a done deal). Efficient has ADSL over ATM (with announced partnerships with both ERICY and NN) and Ericsson has wireless and DWDM, as does NN, with strengths in slightly different areas. Within the last year NN's positions in LMDS and DWDM have improved their marriage chances considerably. In DWDM, alone, the market is estimated to be $4.3 billion by 2002 and Cambrian's share is conservatively 20%. (NN owns 40% and Terry Matthews 22%. )
I believe it's possible LU may make at least one defensive acquisition, but, again, I'm just guessing.
If they buy a DSP house, ADI would be a fantastic choice, though I think TXN would be a bidder as a defensive move.
I may be way out in left field, but I don't think ASND and COMS are even in the ball park. If Ascend wants to go it alone --- and Mory has stated many times this is his preference --- then I think Ciena would be a good purchase.
How's that for going against accepted thinking???? :)
Night ---
Pat |
